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Observing systems (in situ and space-based) for monitoring and forecasting ENSO. Evolution of the 1997-1998 El Niño and La Niña.Dr. Antonio Busalacchi
Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC)
Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA
After the last extreme El Niño in 1982-1983, an extensive in situ observing system was deployed in the tropical Pacific Ocean in support of monitoring and predicting El Niño. Within the past ten years a series of ocean and atmosphere remote sensing satellites have been launched that serve to supplement and enhance the observations being taken at the surface, and at depth, in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.The 1997-1998 "El Nino Event of the Century" has been the best monitored El Niño on record. The 1997-1998 El Niño will be the first time a major El Niño event and subsequent La Niña will have been observed from start to finish from a combination of remotely-sensed and in situ measurements of sea surface temperature, sea surface topography, sea surface winds, ocean color, and precipitation. Among some of the lessons learned to date from the 1997-1998 event have been the need for global observations in addition to just those in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In this presentation the evolution of the 1997-1998 El Niño will be depicted from the vantage point provided by these observations as analyzed separately, and together as a representation of the coupled system. Comparisons and contrasts with the evolution 1982-1983 El Niño and how the in situ and space-based observations complement each other will be discussed.
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The Use of GLOBE Student Data as a Means of Developing a Large-Scale Observing NetworkDr. Barret N. Rock
Director, Complex Systems Research Center
University of New Hampshire
Durham, NH 03824 USA
This presentation will focus on two pre-college (K-12th grade) science education outreach programs developed by Dr. Rock, the Forest Watch Program and the GLOBE Program. Forest Watch is a hands-on science education project centered on student measurements and assessments of the state-of-health of white pine (Pinus strobus), a known bioindicator species for exposure to tropospheric (ground-level) ozone, an air pollutant common in the northeastern United States. Students from approximately 150 schools across New England are currently involved in helping Rock monitor the response of white pine to interannual variations in this form of air pollution, and some of the regional and temporal patterns will be presented. In 1994-95, Dr. Rock served as the first Senior Scientist for GLOBE (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment), an international, multi-disciplinary, science education outreach effort that introduces students to hands-on science activities designed to provide scientists with reliable data relevant to climate change studies. Currently, there are students from over 8,000 schools, representing nearly 100 countries, engaged in the GLOBE Program.
GLOBE students make a series of daily measurements at a site located near their school, including: maximum/minimum temperatures using calibrated thermometers, precipitation using a standard rain gauge, and cloud cover estimates. In addition, students conduct a land cover mapping exercise based on a Landsat Thematic Mapper image of their region, using a modified UNESCO international land cover classification scheme. The GLOBE-provided 30 m resolution TM image covers a 15 X 15 km area surrounding their school, and the students generate a 10-class land cover classification using GLOBE-provided image processing software. The students then evaluate the accuracy of their land cover classification using a standard error matrix method. At selected sites near their school, students also conduct basic biometry measurements, such as diameter growth of specific trees, canopy cover and ground cover, and a phenology assessment. All of the above measurements are made following strict GLOBE protocols, developed by research scientists within the GLOBE Program, made on the same sites, year after year. Rock's presentation will provide evidence that such student-made measurements represent a unique source of reliable data for use in climate change studies.
The GLOBE Program thus represents an extensive international large-scale observing network that could be combined with other large-scale observing systems (satellites, buoy arrays, etc.), to provide input to new climate change research efforts. With the successful launch of Terra (EOS-AM 1) and the EO-1 Earth Observing platforms, GLOBE land cover classifications, once assessed for accuracy, can provide a significant resource to MODIS-style large-scale land cover mapping activities. In addition, such GLOBE measurements can be used to focus on local issues, such as has been done in the Forest Watch Program. The most obvious long-term benefits from such science education outreach programs is the exposure of students to authentic and relevant science, resulting in a populous better educated in science, one which can grasp science issues of societal and global importance, and make more informed decisions.
Link to GLOBE La Niña/El Niño Experiment
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Extending Climate Predictability.Dr. David Enfield
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, USA
View Dr. Enfield's abstract (including figures) for both presentations
[PDF Format. Your browser must have the appropriate plug-in or download Acrobar free software from Adobe].
Link to Dr. Enfield's home page (includes publications list)
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Diagnostic studies of ENSO signature on regional climates.Dr. Chester Ropelewski
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI)
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Numerical models for climate prediction: capabilities and limitations.Dr. Carlos Nobre
Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), Brazil
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Capabilities and limitations of biophysical crop models. Linking crop models and climate forecasts for risk assessment and management.Dr. Jim W. Jones
Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department
University of Florida, Gainesville, USA
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Overview of major issues related to water resources; linkages to climate variability.Dr. Brad Wilcox
Inter American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI)
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The effective use of climate forecasts. Lessons learned during the IRI Pilot Training Project.Dr. Guillermo Berri
Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
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Climate variability and agricultural economics. Economic value of climate forecasts.Dr. James Mjelde
Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Texas A&M University, USA
Link to Dr. Mjelde's home page
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Impediments or barriers for the effective use of climate information. Communicating climate information effectively.Dr. Roger Pulwarty
NOAA, Office of Global Programs, USA
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The management of water resources in the Americas. Assessment of water supplies, and its multi-dimensional and multi-objective uses.Dr. Carlos Fernandez-Jauregui
UNESCO, Regional Office for Science and Technology in Latin America and the Caribbean
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Developing successful scientific proposals. Management and evaluation of scientific projects.Dr. Paul Filmer
Directorate for Geosciences
National Science Foundation, USA
Link to Dr. Filmer's presentation: "Proposal Development and Submission"
Link to Dr. Filmer's presentation: "IAI Proposal Processing"
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Science programs involving natural and social scientists: lessons learned.Ms. Caitlin Simpson
NOAA, Office of Global Programs, USA
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Vulnerability of human systems to climate variability. ENSO and natural disasters.Dr. Juan Pablo Sarmiento
USAID, Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, USA
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Human dimensions of tropical cyclones. Hurricanes and ENSO.Dr. Christopher Landsea
NOAA, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, USA
Part I - Climate Variations of Atlantic Hurricanes.
Accurate records of basinwide Atlantic and U.S. landfalling hurricanes extend back to the mid 1940s and the turn of the century, respectively, as a result of aircraft reconnaissance and instrumented weather stations along the U.S. coasts. Such long-term records are not exceeded elsewhere in the tropics. The Atlantic hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes and U.S. normalized damage time series are examined for interannual trends and multidecadal variability. It is found that only weak linear trends can be ascribed to the hurricane activity and that multidecadal variability is more characteristic of the region. Various environmental factors including Caribbean sea level pressures and 200mb zonal winds, the stratospheric Quasi--Biennial Oscillation, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, African West Sahel rainfall and Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are analyzed for interannual links to the Atlantic hurricane activity. All show significant, concurrent relationships to the frequency, intensity and duration of Atlantic hurricanes. Additionally, variations in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are significantly linked to changes in U.S. tropical cyclone-caused damages. Finally, much of the multidecadal hurricane activity can be linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Mode - an empirical orthogonal function pattern derived from a global sea surface temperature record. Such linkages may allow for prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity on a multidecadal basis. These results are placed into the context of climate change and natural hazards policy.
Part II - Forecasting Atlantic hurricane activity for 1999.
Information obtained through March 1999 indicates that 1999 Atlantic hurricane activity is likely to be above the average for the 1950 1990 period with 9 hurricanes (average 5.8), 14 named storms (average 9.3), 65 named storm days (average 47), 40 hurricane days (average 24), 4 intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average 2.2), 10 intense hurricane days (average is 4.7) and a Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) of 130 (average 71). Collectively, net tropical cyclone activity is expected to be about 160 percent of the long term average. The 1999 season should have hurricane activity comparable to the recent busy hurricane seasons of 1996 and 1998. Evidence suggests that we have entered a new era of enhanced major hurricane activity.
Link to Dr. Landsea's home page
Link to manuscript on "La Niña, El Niño and hurricane damages in the United States" by Roger Pielke Jr. and Chris Landsea.
Link to manuscript on "Normalized hurricane damages in the United States" by Roger Pielke Jr. and Chris Landsea.
Link to manuscript on "Effect of El Niño on U.S. landfalling hurricanes, revisited" by Bove at al.
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Page Last Updated: July 6, 1999 Contact Information: Guillermo Podestá, IAI/UM Summer Institute Science Coordinator e-mail: gpodesta@rsmas.miami.edu Telephone: 1.305.361.4142 FAX: 1.305.361.4622